RISK MANAGEMENT OF THE LABOR RESOURCE REPRODUCTION PROCESS

Abstract

Introduction. The article substantiates the need to include risk management in the models of regulating the labor resource reproductive process, a system whose dynamics is determined by the influence of external factors. The fundamental contradiction of the reproductive process is analyzed — the mismatch of supply and demand in the labor market. The authors have performed a brief analysis of the workforce state on the basis of statistical data from sample surveys of the workforce. The stable negative trends reflecting the deterioration of the demographic situation are listed. In addition to the actualization of the problem, a set of stable negative trends characterizing the degradation of demographic dynamics is presented. The purpose of the study is to identify and systematize risks in the context of current models of the labor resource reproductive process. Methodology and methods. The authors use a set of scientific and methodological tools: the method of scientific abstraction, techniques of analogy and comparative analysis, statistical tools, and the technique of expert assessments. The fundamental methodological paradigm is a systematic approach that provides a multidimensional study of relationships and considers human resources as a complex multicomponent system. The methodology is based on an interdisciplinary approach that includes risk management theory; economic concepts that take into account the influence of demographic, socio-psychological and political factors; theories of human resource management; family concepts that emphasize the role of family and parental labor; the main demographic theories of labor reproduction — the theory of reproduction types and the theory of demographic transition. The comparative historical method is used to analyze the dynamics of the models. Fundamental cognitive procedures have been implemented at the general scientific level. The analysis of theoretical research has revealed a significant limitation of scientific discourse: the lack of specialized study of the impact of a specific risk arising within the labor resource reproductive processes. Scientific novelty of the research. A new scientific concept of risk management of the labor resource reproductive process has been developed, on the basis of all stages of the life cycle, which makes it possible to identify qualitatively new patterns of expanded reproduction of the population. A new object of research has been introduced into scientific circulation — the risk of the labor resource reproductive process; the key characteristics of this risk have been systematized and disclosed. Five models of the labor resource reproductive process have been critically rethought and clarified, on the basis of which the risks of regulation have been identified: the point configuration model; the classical linear model; linear modification; iterative adaptive; cyclic integrative model with network elements and a reverse contour. Results. The application of an interdisciplinary approach, evolutionary analysis and the study of the object genesis made it possible to develop a new theoretical concept for regulating the risks of the labor resource reproductive process. The conceptual framework describing risks in the framework of the labor resource reproductive process has been expanded. An algorithm for diagnosing the risks of labor reproduction has been developed. Risk regulation tools and their key determinants are identified. A comparative analysis of the reliability of labor reproduction models revealed a significant gap in the levels of sustainability, which made it possible to identify the most vulnerable and most reliable models, identify key risk factors, and justify the need to adjust labor reproduction strategies and policies. Conclusions. The insufficient theoretical elaboration of the problem of risk regulation in the field of labor resource reproductive processes, as well as the uncertainty and ambiguity of the conceptual apparatus used in this field, has been established. A typology of models of the labor resource reproductive process has been formed while emphasizing that their incorrect use can significantly affect the level of risk. Expert estimates of the reliability coefficients of reproduction process models are presented, allowing us to judge their stability and practical applicability in conditions of uncertainty. The authors have identified promising directions for minimizing and mitigating risks, which creates the need for further research.