FORESIGHT FORECASTING AS A CONSTRUCTOR OF "EFFECTIVENESS OF THE FUTURE" IN THE ACTIVITIES OF ENTERPRISES

Abstract

Planetary international community changes have resulted in the development and implementation of new approaches and technologies in the manufacturing industry. The alignment of mediumand long-term forecasts is a necessary condition for the existence and development of an industrial enterprise. Linear methods of forecasting proved to be ineffective. Therefore, at the present stage of economic development, and the international market demands forecasting methods, foresight forecasting in particular, are of great interest. The theoretical constructor for this work is literature concerned with foresight forecasting, framework programs and common research area. Proposed in the article technology of foresight forecasting as a unit of measurement of an industrial enterprise “effectiveness of the future” makes it possible to activate destabilizing processes and outline new horizons and models, create the situation for an industrial enterprise favorable enough to choose future directions. The research is based on pointing out functional regularities of a modern enterprise and factors of their changes. Foresight forecasting specifies longterm objectives for an industrial enterprise development, and also objectives for financing the sector of fundamental and application-oriented science and supporting commercialization of developments in this sector. To evaluate the tendencies of an industrial enterprise development in Russia and abroad rankings of the greatest companies (as far as the profit is concerned) in Russia (“Expert-400”), in the USA (Fortune USA 500) and in the world generally (Fortune Global 500). Possible diversity and sensitivity of those countries which experience structural failure can be an important step towards integration and competition enhancement in the universal space on the assumption of forecasting future technologies.