"PATH DEPENDENCE" IN DEVELOPING SOCIO-ECONOMIC SPACE OF THE REGION. PART 1: "PATH DEPENDENCE" AND THE LOCAL CRISIS IN THE CHELYABINSK REGION

Abstract

The article considers the heterogeneity inherent in many Russia’s regions in the context of the crisis, and in some cases the multidirectionality of the main trends in their socio-economic development. To a large extent, this is due to the manifestation of the so-called “path dependence” or institutional inertia, which impedes the necessary and relevant changes due to the dominance of the previous trajectory and paradigm of its development when the region enters the crisis. The “path dependence”, fundamentally, is caused by the manifestation of long-term, historically established institutional, economic and sociocultural conditions specific for different regions. Due to this circumstance, different regions are more or less sensitive to the negative effects of external factors of a crisis nature. In some cases, the manifestation of this effect gives a positive result, but much more often it causes a negative development result. From the viewpoint of analyzing the “path dependence” manifestation, the Chelyabinsk region seems to be a kind of typical “contrast indicator”. In recent years, the inherent problems and features of the crisis development in the Chelyabinsk region are, to one degree or another, characteristic of many Russian industrially developed old industrial territories. On the basis of visualizing the dynamics of the Chelyabinsk region’s basic socio-economic indicators, the authors make a conclusion that sharp and prolonged decline, as well as growing imbalance of the changes over the past 10-15 years, indicates the emergence of a specific local crisis in the region, covering only some elements of its socio-economic system. At the same time, there arises a situation when the negative changes in some indicators of the region’s economy can no longer be compensated by positive trends in national development. High volatility of indicators characterizing the development of the region in the context of manifesting the “path dependence” is an important factor in forming a number of risks that must be taken into account while searching for ways out of the crisis. The existing and continuing trends in the Chelyabinsk region associated with manifesting the “path dependence” can initiate the growth of social problems in the near future (limited growth of household incomes and retail trade turnover) and increase the risks of sustainable development of the real sector of the economy (decline in production indices and investment) in the strategic aspect.