ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКИЙ ФАКТОРНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНОВ УРАЛЬСКОГО МАКРОРЕГИОНА В ЭПОХУ ЧЕТВЕРТОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОЙ РЕВОЛЮЦИИ

Abstract

Введение. Четвертая промышленная революция существенно меняет структуру экономических отношений и трансформирует значимость факторов развития территорий. Цель. Выявить наиболее существенные факторы развития регионов Уральского макрорегиона в контексте четвертой промышленной революции и определить направления воздействий для обеспечения конкурентоспособности и долгосрочного роста территорий. Методы. Методологическая база исследования опирается на совокупность научных подходов экономического роста, концепций региональной и институциональной экономики. Методы исследования включают региональный, сравнительный и эконометрический факторный анализ. Научная новизна исследования. Предложен метод выявления значимости факторов развития регионов и установлены ключевые факторы развития субъектов Уральского макрорегиона в контексте четвертой промышленной революции. Исследование вносит вклад в научную дискуссию о значении и управлении институциональными факторами развития. Результаты. Представлены результаты диагностики регуляторной среды и географических факторов субъектов Уральского макрорегиона. Произведен эконометрический анализ их влияния экономическое развитие. Установлена статистическая значимость для регионального развития объема добычи полезных ископаемых и качества правовой среды. Статистически незначимы в среднесрочной перспективе на рассмотренной выборке оказались неформальные институты (авторы объясняют явление слабой дифференциацией культурных особенностей и деловых практик регионов в силу их исторической связности) и транспортногеографическое положение (в связи с уменьшением пространственного влияния и усилением роли цифровых технологий в производственных цепочках в Индустрии 4.0). Выводы. В Свердловской и Челябинской областях удалось обеспечить более высокие значения ВРП на душу населения благодаря инклюзивной регуляторной среде. В целом в российских регионах во втором десятилетии XXI века сохраняется сырьевая ориентация (среди изученных объектов наиболее экстрактивный характер носит экономика Оренбургской области и Удмуртии). Для обеспечения долгосрочного развития страны необходимо формирование благоприятного делового климата: совершенствование правовой среды по обозначенным в исследовании направлениям, повышение уровня доверия и снижение уровня коррупции.Introduction. The fourth industrial revolution significantly changes the structure of economic relations and transforms the importance of factors in the development of territories. The purpose of the article is to identify the most significant factors in the regional development of the Ural macro region in the context of the fourth industrial revolution and to determine the directions of impacts to ensure the competitiveness and long-term growth of territories. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is based on a set of scientific approaches to economic growth, concepts of regional and institutional economics. Research methods include regional, comparative and econometric factor analysis. Scientific novelty of the study. A method for identifying the significance of factors in the development of regions is proposed and the key factors for developing the subjects of the Ural macro region in the context of the fourth industrial revolution are established. The study contributes to the scientific debate on the meaning and management of institutional development factors. Results. The author presents the results of diagnosing the regulatory environment and geographic factors of the subjects of the Ural macro region. An econometric analysis of their impact on economic development has been carried out. The statistical significance for developing the volume of mining and the quality of the legal environment in the regions has been established. Informal institutions (the authors explain the phenomenon by weak differentiation of cultural characteristics and business practices of regions due to their historical connectivity) and transport and geographical location (due to a decrease in spatial influence and an increase in the role of digital technologies in production chains in Industry 4.0). Conclusions. In the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions, it was possible to ensure higher values of GRP per capita due to a favorable regulatory environment. In general, in the Russian regions in the second decade of the 21st century, the raw material orientation remains (among the studied objects, the economies of the Orenburg region and Udmurtia are the most extractive). To ensure the country's long-term development, it is necessary to create a favorable business climate: improving the legal environment in the areas outlined in the study, increasing the level of trust and reducing the level of corruption.Introduction. The fourth industrial revolution significantly changes the structure of economic relations and transforms the importance of factors in the development of territories. The purpose of the article is to identify the most significant factors in the regional development of the Ural macro region in the context of the fourth industrial revolution and to determine the directions of impacts to ensure the competitiveness and long-term growth of territories. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is based on a set of scientific approaches to economic growth, concepts of regional and institutional economics. Research methods include regional, comparative and econometric factor analysis. Scientific novelty of the study. A method for identifying the significance of factors in the development of regions is proposed and the key factors for developing the subjects of the Ural macro region in the context of the fourth industrial revolution are established. The study contributes to the scientific debate on the meaning and management of institutional development factors. Results. The author presents the results of diagnosing the regulatory environment and geographic factors of the subjects of the Ural macro region. An econometric analysis of their impact on economic development has been carried out. The statistical significance for developing the volume of mining and the quality of the legal environment in the regions has been established. Informal institutions (the authors explain the phenomenon by weak differentiation of cultural characteristics and business practices of regions due to their historical connectivity) and transport and geographical location (due to a decrease in spatial influence and an increase in the role of digital technologies in production chains in Industry 4.0). Conclusions. In the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions, it was possible to ensure higher values of GRP per capita due to a favorable regulatory environment. In general, in the Russian regions in the second decade of the 21st century, the raw material orientation remains (among the studied objects, the economies of the Orenburg region and Udmurtia are the most extractive). To ensure the country's long-term development, it is necessary to create a favorable business climate: improving the legal environment in the areas outlined in the study, increasing the level of trust and reducing the level of corruption.